Luxury Box Cheap Seats --- Issue #4
*David Rabinowe on Baseball Free Agent
Contracts and the Mets and the BCS
* Hansen Alexander analyzes a Terrible
College Football Season
* A Preview of LSU against the
Indianapolis Colts...
* Can Anybody Beat the Green Bay
Packers?
January
2012
DEATH
(OF THE NY METS AS A BIG MARKET TEAM), TAXES, AND A BUNCH OF
B(C)S
By: David Rabinowe, Esq.DEATH – OF THE NY METS
There is a lot of blame to go around. Omar Minaya and the team’s previous management are definitely culpable. Over the last few years, many of the NY Mets players have under-performed, incurred injuries and been victims to plain old bad luck – so yes, they are at fault. Bud Selig is to blame for letting this happen on his watch. Even Bernie Madoff is partially responsible. But mostly the New York Mets ownership has to take the hit, because the fact is, the Mets are dead. They are not retooling. They are not rebuilding. They are dead. And as a lifelong Mets fan I am in mourning.
What we Mets fans have witnessed is the destruction of a once proud, big market franchise that has been rendered impotent. They are no longer able to compete, and no, I do not mean just in 2012, I mean for (at least) the next decade. The Mets have given up any hope of chasing championships, and in doing so, will lose the battle for the hearts and minds of a generation of New York baseball fans to teams like the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox and even the Marlins.
The Mets ownership is in the worst place any ownership group can be. They are wealthy-broke. Billionaires who are so over leveraged with debt owed on the team they cannot be competitive. According to a recent FoxSports.com report, The Wilpon’s owe $430 million in principal on a loan against the team due in 2014. They owe $450 million in principal on a loan against SNY, the Mets regional cable TV network, due in 2015. They owe an estimated $600 million, due in $25 million increments every six months, on Citi Field, and none of these debts include the collateral damage from the Madoff lawsuit, which currently stands at $83 million – but could increase- or the $25 million they borrowed from MLB last year, or their recent 40 million dollar bridge loan needed while they look for investors, or that the team lost $70 million in 2011 because of attendance drop-offs, bad contracts, and mismanagement.
In short, the team I love is a disaster. The reality is that with the Wilpon’s as our owners we cannot compete with the other teams in our division, let alone our cross town rival, the Yankees. And while our short and medium term prognosis is bleak, it is the long term outlook that is most depressing. The truth is there is no real hope for Mets fans. Even if our current crop of prospects become stars, and in a few years we actually have the talent to compete, there is no reason to believe we could afford to pay that talent the market rate to stay through their prime.
We have become the Pirates. We are the Astros. We are a minor league franchise that will become a feeder team for the big boys like the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox and…ahem…even the Marlins. We will be perpetual sellers in a market where contending teams buy. Want proof? Ask the most dynamic, homegrown, talented position player the Mets have had since the days of Darryl Strawberry. Ask Jose Reyes.
TAXES:
And speaking of Jose, Reyes left the New York Mets, the only organization he has ever played for, opting to take his talents to South Beach -- signing with the Miami Marlins this off season. The other mega-prize of this year’s free agent class, Albert Pujols followed suit days later and left the only organization he has ever known, an adoring, passionate fan base, and two championships in St. Louis -- to sign with the LA Angels of Anaheim. These two superstars left their teams under very different circumstances, but for the same reason...Money. Both superstars will now have to deal with heightened expectations, a disappointed fan base they left behind, and the pressure that comes with being the face and future of their new franchises.
But interestingly, there are also substantial differences in the contracts these two superstars signed. The details as we know them, according to Cots Baseball Contracts include:
Pujols’ deal is for 10 year and $250 million, includes no-trade protection and a 10-year personal-services contract to begin once player contract expires. In addition Pujols will pay 9.3 percent in state income tax because he signed with a team that plays in California.
Reyes’s deal is for 6 years and $106 million and plus a 2018 option, with annual salaries of 12:$10M, 13:$10M, 14:$16M,15:$22M, 16:$22M, 17:$22M, 18:$22M club option ($4M buyout); award bonuses of: $50,000 each for Gold Glove, All-Star Team. $0.1M for Silver Slugger. $0.25M for LCS MVP. $0.5M for MVP. $1M for WS MVP; Perks that include a suite at home and on the road, and the contract mandates that Reyes donate $176,666 annually to charity. However, Jose Reyes's contract does not include no-trade protection and because he signed in Florida, Reyes will pay no state income tax.
There are two things that stand out when you dissect what we know about these contracts, First, state taxes are an interesting carrot (or stick) when it comes to a team’s ability to negotiate with players. Pujols will pay roughly 25 million dollars in state taxes over the life of his contract. Reyes will pay nothing to the state of Florida. Had Pujols re-signed with St. Louis, the state income tax rate would have been 6%. In other words, in order to offer a deal equal in value to the Angels offer, St. Louis would have had to offer about 10 years/247 million. For the Miami Marlins the other serious bidder for Pujols services to make an equal offer they could have offered 10 years/225 million.
Conversely, In Jose Reyes's case, for the Mets to have make a comparable offer, they would have needed to add 8.97% to the Marlins offer, equaling to about a 6 year/120 million dollar deal plus the 2018 option.
What team do you root for? Here are the state income tax rates for states that
have a MLB franchise:
Individual
State Income Tax Rates 2011:
State
|
Tax
Rate
|
Arizona
|
2.59
- 4.54%
|
California
|
1.0
– 9.3%
|
Colorado
|
4.63%
|
Florida
|
None
|
Georgia
|
1.0
- 6.0%
|
Illinois
|
5.0%
|
Indiana
|
3.4%
|
Maryland
|
2.0
– 5.5%
|
Massachusetts
|
5.3%
|
Michigan
|
4.35%
|
Minnesota
|
5.35
- 7.85%
|
Missouri
|
1.5
- 6.0%
|
New
York
|
4.0
– 8.97%
|
Ohio
|
0.587
– 5.93%
|
Pennsylvania
|
3.07%
|
Texas
|
None
|
Washington
|
None
|
Wisconsin
|
4.6
– 7.75%
|
District
of Columbia
|
4.0
- 8.5%
|
The second thing to note about these contracts is that the way the money gets paid to franchise players differs dramatically. Teams and players value different things differently. Jose Reyes actually is taking a pay cut for the next few years before his severely back loaded contract takes effect. Pujols’ contract includes a personal services contract, making his deal closer to a partnership agreement then an employee contract. In short, these contracts are not simple X dollar for X years’ deals. Agents earn their money negotiating, players get perks we as fans can only dream of, and the most lucrative deal may not always be the deal with the highest number attached to it that you hear about in the headlines.
So when you hear a player gave to charity, remember, it might be part of his contract. The suite he stays in on the road –that was negotiated. Everything is on the table.
The best example of the complexities of these types of contracts is the most lucrative in baseball’s history. Here is a look at some of the highlights of Alex Rodriguez’s latest contract with the Yankees according to Cots:
Alex Rodriguez --10 years/$275M (2008-17)
ore-signed
by Yankees as a free agent 12/13/07
o$10M
signing bonus ($2M paid upon approval, $1M paid each Jan. 15, 2009-2013, $3M
paid Jan. 15, 2014)
oAnnual
Salaries: 08:$27M, 09:$32M, 10:$32M, 11:$31M, 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M,
15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M
o$30M
marketing agreement based on home run milestones ($6M each for reaching 660,
714, 755 and tying and breaking major league HR record)
ono-trade
protection
operks:
may purchase 4 best available season tickets for 2008, 4 Legends Suite or
comparable season tickets for 2009-17
oTexas
obligated to fund $9M as part of deferred compensation provision in previous
contract (to be paid with interest in $3M increments in 2008, 2009 &
2010)
AND
A BUNCH OF B(C)S:College Football is a great sport, but the BCS is a joke. The fact is that the BCS system did exactly what it was designed to do, pitting the two best teams in the country against each other in the national championship, and therefore failed in delivering a fair, compelling game to its millions of fans proves the system is an abject failure.
Consider this: LSU beat Alabama AT Alabama, and then had to play in the SEC championship game, while Alabama rested, only to be forced to beat them AGAIN on a neutral field in order to claim the BCS title. Alabama’s road to the championship: Lose at home to LSU in what was hyped as the “game of the century” only to get to rest before they get to try again on a neutral field? Sorry Alabama, even if you win, you are not champions in my book. Your overall resume will still not be as impressive as LSU’s. And BCS backers, you know there is a problem when you design a system that accomplishes its goal, and is still considered a complete failure.
So who should play? Declare LSU the BCS champions, and let them play the Indianapolis Colts. LSU would lose soundly, but at least both teams would have earned the opportunity to play in the game -- you can't say that about LSU v. Alabama.
A
DREADFUL YEAR IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL
By: Hansen Alexander
The first issue
that put a pall over college football this year was the prolonged NFL Owners’
lockout which finally brought a collective bargaining agreement, cutting rookie
salaries which drained college defenses when star players scrambled to be part
of the higher salaries in the 2011 draft and left school early. This culminated
in the Orange Bowl and the Alamo Bowl in which West Virginia laid 70 points on
a respectable Clemson defense and Baylor and Washington also scored over 100
points.
The second issue
evolved from the NCAA’s refusal to levy serious sanctions against Ohio State in
the wake of the worst violations conducted by, and led by, a University, ever.
Head coach Jim Tressel covered up infractions in the means of illegal benefits
received by his best players. He also failed to notify his superiors at Ohio
State of both the illegal benefits and a criminal investigation into those
benefits by federal law enforcement officials. When the violations emerged in
the form of indisputable e-mail evidence, Tressel lied about it repeatedly.
Worse, athletic director Gene Smith and Ohio State President Gordon Gee took no
action in an effort to protect the signing of its excellent 2011 recruiting
class on February 2. It was only a month later, when the new recruits were
safely aboard, that the Ohio State administration even acknowledged the
charges. Even then, they dug in and drew the wagons around Tressel. They were
not going to fire Tressel. Not to their credit, Sugar Bowl officials, who know
a thing or two about corruption, begged the Buckeyes not to suspend their star
players before the 2011 Sugar Bowl when charges were first made public.
Gee, who had
previously served on the NCAA infractions committee and knew how it operated,
finally agreed to suspend Tressel for five meaningless games at the beginning
of the 2011 season, and to bench quarterback Terrelle Pryor, at the center of
the scandal, for five games along with their best runner, Dan Harron, their
best receiver De Vier Poisey, and their best offensive lineman Marcus Hall.
Despite a national uproar in the press, Ohio State stuck with Tressell despite
the cover up and the subsequent revelations that Tressell had been a serial
violator of NCAA rules throughout his career. Angry Buckeyes fans made it so
miserable for former Ohio State quarterback Kirk Herbstreet, who was trying to
cover the scandal for ESPN, in Columbus where he lived, including death threats,
that Herbstreet was forced to leave and move his family to Tennessee. Pryor
kept the scandal burning when further stories revealed his questionable
business relationship with a car dealer from his home town and the revelations
that he had use of free cars during his years in Columbus from a local dealer.
Like Nixon jettisoning Vice President Agnew during the Watergate scandal, Gee
finally fired Tressel and convinced Pryor it was in everybody’s benefit for him
to officially turn pro, and he was finally signed by the Oakland Raiders in a
supplemental draft after the regular one at the end of April.
The
consequences? No harm to the Ohio State program, really. Despite the loss of
their star offensive players, the freshmen class was so strong, especially on
defense, that they made a serious run at the Big Ten Title anyway, in
contention well into November. Included in their wins was a remarkable upset of
Rose Bowl representative and Big Ten Champion Wisconsin. In fact, with the
exception of dominating losses in Florida to Miami in September and to Florida
in the Gator Bowl, the young Buckeyes played everybody tough. The end result?
One of the best coaches in America, Urban Meyer, replaced Tressel. After Meyer
accepted the job in late November, perhaps after having insider information
that the penalties against Ohio State would be light, the NCAA officially
handed down its ruling to insure justice and fairness in college football. The
Buckeyes received one year on probation from being eligible for the Big Ten
Title (which they were not yet likely to compete for anyway) and a one year ban
on a bowl game. Finally, they lost 8 scholarships. Compared to the loss of 30
scholarships at USC where the coaching staff had no knowledge of or
participation in free rent for the family of Reggie Bush’s family, the
penalties for a program where the head coach engineered and led the cover up
was absurd. If any program ever deserved the death penalty, the dismantling of
its football team for a set number of years, it was Ohio State.
The sex abuse
scandal at Penn State was far more shocking than the crimes in Columbus,
although the subcontracted facilities of Penn State by a former coach and the
ensuing abuses was a remote happening, not likely to repeat itself. The
subsequent revelation of sexual abuse by an assistant basketball coach at
Syracuse which was much more integral to the basketball program over years than
was Sandusky’s at Penn State did nothing to show that the Penn State crisis is
unlikely to be repeated. And the cover up led by the athletic director Tim
Curley and vice president Gary Schultz are not likely to happen again either
because it seems unlikely that in today’s corporate world another coach would
be around for 60 years to create such an unassailable fiefdom. Graduate
assistant Tim McQueary saw former Penn State defensive coordinator Jerry
Sandusky involved with an under-aged boy in a sexual act. Fans and
sportswriters across the country made the dubious claim that had they been in
McQueary’s shoes they would have stopped Sandusky from raping the young boy. McQueary
reported an act with no connection to the Penn State football program. Other
witnesses stated that Sandusky did have sex with boys through his foundation
while still coaching at Penn State. But from a negligent standpoint, only the
failure of university officials to report criminal actions of statutory rape is
actionable. And that legal action probably only applies to the individual Penn
state officials not the University itself. Penn State does not have a legal
obligation to supervise organizations that rent its facilities and is therefore
not liable for crimes committed by those renters or subcontractors. One can
argue that Penn State was notified of criminal activity on its rented property,
but again, the foundation did not have a relationship with Penn State football.
The Penn State football program is not liable nor is it responsible for
policing subcontracted activities on its property and it is not responsible for
what McQueary and Paterno did outside their employment as coaches at Penn
State.
The only heroes
at Ohio State were the student newspaper reporters who bravely reported the
abuses and cover up by school officials. In Pennsylvania, not only was icon Joe
Paterno fired, but the state’s newspapers, some of them quite small and without
resources to defend lawsuits, reported and called for firings at Penn State.
Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett made sure there would be justice by launching
his own investigation. The Board of Regents of Penn State fired Paterno, fired
AD Tim Curley, fired VP Gary Schultz, and even fired PSU President Graham
Spanier. Penn State students, alumni, remaining officials, and citizens of this
great state demonstrated true remorse, shame, embarrassment, and regret over
the sexual abuse of these young boys, who really had no connection to its
football program.
The nation’s
media, which was much tougher on Penn State than Ohio State, has only to blame
itself for the slap on the wrist accorded Ohio State and the travesty of
justice it resulted in.
Ohio State, its
fans, and its state essentially gave the nation their middle finger. The
arrogance of it all is appalling. The Ohio State Board of regents did nothing
to punish the wacky antics of President Gordon Gee, who deemed the scandal so
trivial that he suggested Tressel should fire him, in a bizarre attempt at a
joke. Athletic director Gene Smith was as complicit in the cover up as Tressel,
yet remains at the AD.
Unlike the Penn
State scandal with its remote connection to the actual football program, the
allegations against players who accepted illegal gifts, benefits, and even cash
from rouge booster Nevin Shapiro in Miami is indeed connected to the football
program. The benefits, according to Shapiro, included prostitutes, parties at
Shapiro’s home and nightclubs, jewelry, travel expenses, and in the vase of
Vince Eilfork, now of the New England Patriots, at least $50,00 in cash. The
number of Miami Hurricanes stars who received benefits is staggering and I only
list a handful: Andre Johnson, Devin Hester, Kellen Winslow, Jr., Antel Rolle,
DJ Williams, Sam Shields, Sean Taylor, Willis McGahee, and Jerome McDougle. In
addition, this year’s squad had eight offenders who sat out games, quarterback
Jacory Harris, safety Ray Ray Armstrong, linebacker Sean Spence, wide receiver
Travis Benjamin, defensive tackle Marcus Forston, and Ademewale Ojomo. Spence,
Benjamin, and Forston are expected to be high NFL draft picks in April.
The mitigating
circumstances for Miami seem to be that Shapiro’s allegations of knowledge by 7
coaches has not, as of this writing, been substantiated. In fact former coach
Randy Shannon explicitly banned Shapiro from Miami football facilities. This is
in contrast to Ohio State where the coach himself, the very person responsible
for the program, led the cover up. Nonetheless, the breadth of the Miami
violations is staggering, and it is hard to see how the program can be punished
with less than the two years probation USC received. Three years of probation,
no bowls and no possibility to play for ACC titles, seems like a probable
punishment.
COACHING CHANGES COLLEGE FOOTBALL FOR 2012
School 2012
Coach Hansen’s
choice
New Mexico Ken
Davie Mike
Leach
UCLA Jim
Mora Manny
Diaz
Ole Miss Hugh
Freeze Larry
Fedora
Illinois Tim
Beckman Paul
Petrino
Florida Atlantic Carl
Pelini Randy
Shannon
Arizona Rich
Rodriguez Chris
Peterson
Alabama Birmingham Derrick
McGee Terry
Bowden
Tulane Curtis
Johnson Major
Applewhite
Washington State Mike
Leach Mike
Price
Penn State Bill
O’Brien Kirby Smart
North Carolina Larry
Fedora Everett
Withers
Kansas Charlie
Weis Sonny
Dykes
Ohio State Urban
Meyer Tim
Beckman
Houston Tony
Levine Guz
Malzahn
Arizona State Todd
Graham Mike
Belotti
Southern Mississippi Ellis
Johnson Chad
Morris
Texas A&M Kevin
Sumlin Mike
Sherman
Memphis Justin
Fuente Philip
Fulmer
Arkansas State Gus
Malzahn
Colorado State Jim
McElwain Turner
Gill
Fresno State Tim
De Ruyter Pat
Hill
Hawaii Norm Chow
Pitt Paul
Chryst Tom
Bradley
Akron Terry
Bowden
What coach was hired by what school, or,
more importantly, what coach turned down what school, told you more than
anything about the relative strengths of various college football programs. In
recent years schools are foregoing big name veteran coaches and hiring young
coordinators who they hope will turn out to be the next Bear Bryant. The most
coveted jobs available this year---Pitt, Texas A&M, and North Carolina—all
went to young coaches, Wisconsin offensive coordinator Paul Chryst to Pitt,
Houston head coach Kevin Sumlin (at the top of everybody’s list) took over the
Aggies, and Larry Fedora, an offensive guru who led Southern Mississippi to the
Conference USA Championship, will try to organize all the underachieving talent
in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. A rising star, Toledo’s Tim Beckman, was
selected by Illinois.
A lot of the schools hiring new coaches
are tough places to win and seem to have a Help Wanted sign out every several
years: Colorado State, Memphis, Kansas, UCLA, Washington State, Tulane,
Arizona, Arizona State, Illinois, Alabama Birmingham, New Mexico. Most of these
schools were willing to take another chance on veteran coaches out of a kind of
desperation, who had either failed elsewhere or gotten themselves embroiled in
scandals such as Rich Rodriguez and Mike Leach. Leach was eagerly hired by
Washington State and Rodriguez by Arizona. Akron reached out to 53 year old
Terry Bowden after being spurned by two young coaches. Hawaii reached out for
the aged Norm Chow, a native. New Mexico hired ESPN college football analyst
Ken Davie, who has not coached since he was in charge at Notre Dame in 2001.
The other approach for struggling programs
which could not attract top college coaches or hot young assistants was to hire
a former NFL coach. Spurned by all major college coaches, UCLA turned to Jim
Mora, Jr., formerly coach of the San Francisco 49ers and Atlanta Falcons.
Kansas shocked most sports fans when it hired George Weiss, a successful
offensive coordinator for the Patriots and Chiefs, but who failed at the
college level as a head coach at Notre Dame and as an offensive coordinator at
Florida. Disgraced by a sex abuse scandal that actually had nothing to do with
its football team, Penn State was turned down by dozens of coaches and
coordinators at the college level and finally reached out to NFL assistant Bill
O’Brien of the New England Patriots.
There were institutional issues this
year that impacted coaching decisions, and two of them were at Auburn, a school
that can never keep its intrusive boosters and university officials out of the
locker room for long. Gus Malzahn, its highly respected offensive coordinator,
turned down several big school jobs a year ago. But after only his second year
at Auburn he was only too happy to return home to Arkansas to coach lowly
Arkansas State of the Sunbelt Conference. Malzahn’s counterpoint on Auburn’s
defense, Ted Roof, gave up his $500,000 salary and gladly accepted the same
position at a lesser school, Central Florida.
Naturally, some of these schools hiring
new coaches were among those suffering disappointed seasons amidst high
expectations. Arizona and Arizona State thought they had turned their programs
around. Arizona State was the heavy favorite under Dennis Erickson to represent
the Pac 12 South in the conference’s inaugural championship game. That honor
went to UCLA, who was humiliated in the title game by Oregon and ended up with
a losing record. And this was the league half of the Big 12 wanted to join back
in August?!
Wisconsin and Stanford felt they had
legitimate chances to play in the BCS title game for the second year in a row
and the same teams ruined their seasons with matchup problems for the second
year in a row, Michigan State and Oregon. Michigan State’s defensive speed
caused the Badgers problems in two games in which the two teams split. And
Stanford could not handle Oregon’s track meet offensive attack again. Boise
State was upset by TCU to ruin any hope it had either for a national
championship or a BCS Bowl.
Florida State, considered a national
title contender, never recovered from a physical mauling in a close loss to
Oklahoma, and did not even contend for the ACC Championship. In fact, all the
schools in football rich Florida suffered disappointing seasons. Central
Florida regressed a year after winning Conference USA and taking down Georgia
in the Liberty Bowl. Defending Sunbelt Champion Florida International upset
Louisville behind the exciting touchdown receptions of TY Hilton before
imploding under a rash of injuries. South Florida never matched its upset of
Notre Dame on opening day and continued to fall apart late in the season. Miami’s senior class, the nation’s top
recruiting class of 2008, performed no better under new coach Al Golden than it
had under Randy Shannon. Their one redeeming afternoon was a domination of Ohio
State at home. The highlight for the Florida Gators too was a more or less
domination of Ohio State in the Gator Bowl, mostly because of speed on special
teams. The Florida offense was dysfunctional all year under George Weis and
star new hire Will Muschamp did nothing to show that he might be a good head
coach instead of just a great defensive coordinator.
Notre Dame was loaded on both sides of
the ball, lost its opener in a shocking upset to South Florida in South Bend,
and turned the ball over against inferior opponents all year long. Its only
outstanding performance was a drubbing of Michigan State at home. The Irish
blew a three touchdown lead to Michigan in the renovated Big House. And then
were physically manhandled by resurgent USC on both sides of the ball. Pitt and
Syracuse, in their final seasons before deserting the Big East for the ACC,
went backwards in their development. Tennessee also took a step backward in its
second season under Derek Dooley, and it is highly likely that if he were
anybody but the son of Georgia’s legendary coach Vince Dooley, he would be
unemployed this winter. Mississippi State followed up its breakthrough season
of a year ago under Dan Mullen with a dud season. Nebraska began its inaugural
Big Ten season as the heavy favorite and learned that EVERY team in the Big Ten
is as big and physical as they are. It did not contend for the title and ended
the season with an embarrassing bowl whipping at the hands of South Carolina.
Oklahoma stars Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles returned to Norman with
expectations of winning a national championship. They were stunned by lowly
Texas Tech before suffering a rash of injuries that led to a mauling by the
eventual Big 12 champion, Oklahoma State.
Yet,
of course, many programs exceeded expectations. USC proved the rule of a team who gets better
with time throughout the season. In their last year of probation, they began by
barely beating lowly Minnesota at home. They then beat Utah and Syracuse in
succession, two teams who regressed in 2011. Arizona State dominated them
43-22. They barely escaped Arizona 48-41. Week 6 against Cal seemed to be the
turning point. They beat a very good defense 30-9 and then totally dominated a
talented Notre Dame team 31-7. The next week they took Stanford, in the hunt
for a national championship, to three overtimes before losing 56-48. Then they
rolled like the Trojans of old, whipping Colorado 42-17, Washington 40-17, beat
4th ranked Oregon 38-35, and humiliated UCLA 50-0 in the season
finale. They are surely a national championship contender for 2012.
Arkansas State went from last to first
in the Sunbelt conference under new coach Hugh Freeze and he parlayed the
turnaround into the head coaching job at Ole Miss. Clemson, a talent laden
school which has underachieved for decades, won the ACC championship and helped
make Dabbo Sweeney Coach of the Year. Mike Landon turned Virginia from an also
ran to an ACC contender in his second year and turned down the coaching
position at Penn State at year’s end. To anybody who keeps track of these
things, Michigan’s head coach Brady Hoke did a fantastic job of recruiting last
winter, paraded out a young and improved defense to go with Denard Robinson’s
offense, and contended for the Big Ten Title. Then it upset Virginia Tech, the
preseason ACC favorite, in the Sugar Bowl.Some wondered whether 72 year old Bill Snyder could still coach in his second go around at Kansas State. The answer this year was a resounding yes, as Kansas State upset Miami and then Texas, and spent most of the season in the top 25 with a solid defense and opportunistic offense led by quarterback Collin Klein. Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino is considered by his peers to be one of the best in the business, and he finally put it all together this year despite a suspect defense. Rated as high as No. 3 in the BCS rankings, Arkansas could have possibly played in the national championship had it been able to beat LSU in its regular season finale. With the best assistants money can buy, Texas rebounded from a 5-7 embarrassment a year ago and posted an 8-5 record, including a victory over Cal in the Holiday Bowl. The turnaround saved Mack Brown’s job, if you can put it like that, because Mack and Texas AD Ledoss Dodds are tighter than brothers, and as long as Dodds is running athletics at Texas Mack Brown will have a job. At season’s end, in fact Brown was given a contract extension at $5.5 million a year. To Mack’s credit he did commit Texas firmly to running out of the I Formation, his three offensive linemen blocked well much of the time for the freshmen running back tandem of Malcom Brown and Joe Bergeron, and they will be joined next year by the faster Jonathan Gray. But before they get any fantasies about competing with the Oklahoma squad next year who whipped them 55-17, they are going to have to do something at quarterback. This year’s time-share quarterbacks, Casey McCoy and David Ash, are good runners who do not have the arms to play in the Big 12. Next year’s Texas quarterback by midseason will probably be neither of them.
Dan McCarney, the former Iowa State
coach who had spent recent years as an assistant at Florida, took over North
Texas this season and the program improved from 3-9 in 2010 to 5-7. Louisville
looked awful in the early season but steadily improved under freshman
quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and contended for the Big East title. The
Cardinals defense finished 23rd in the nation. Also in the Big East,
Rutgers, behind the 13th ranked defense in the nation, competed for
the Big East title as well. Rutgers may be the recruiting beneficiary in the
future of the departure of Pitt and Syracuse, and the sex abuse scandal at Penn
State. Their coach Greg Schiano is committed to building Rutgers into a
national competitor and he’s not leaving for other gigs—ever. He has one of the
best offensive coordinators in the country in Frank Cignetti, who WILL be
getting big time coaching offers in the not too distant future.
THE BETTING MONEY IS ON ALABAMA
The first thing you should know is that the game is being played in New Orleans. And in pronouncing the name of this great city, you run the two words together and say, “Norlans.’ You don’t pronounce the New and you don’t pronounce the leans. Second, the money has shifted in favor of Alabama, mainly for two reasons. 1) Alabama usually wins these big games. And 2) Alabama coach Nick Saban is considered to be the best coach in the nation. For national championship contenders they are not much to write home about on offense. Alabama, considered the better offense with the running of Trent Richardson, ranks 43rd in the nation. LSU is even worse at 59th, most of its points coming off special teams or a short field after turnovers. Therefore, it’s all about the defense, ranked 1 and 2 in the country, with Alabama as the 1.
To get an idea what we’re going to be watching tomorrow night, let’s look at one of the better mock drafts, DraftTek, to get an idea how highly these Alabama and LSU players are rated by professional football draft gurus. Draktek, along with other mocks I’ve seen, rate Alabama running back Trent Richardson, who is from the Florida panhandle by the way, as the top running back in the draft and could go as high as fourth player chosen, by the Cleveland Browns. Right behind him at No.5 could be LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne to Tampa Bay. Some drafts have the Jacksonville Jaguars with the 7th overall pick taking either Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick or Alabama safety Mark Barron. Draftek predicts Kirkpatrick going to the Dallas Cowboys with the 14th overall pick and Barron going to the Denver Broncos with the 21rst overall pick. Don’t’a Hightower, Aabama’s fierce inside linebacker, is going to the Philadelphia Eagles with the 15th pick, according to Draftek. Another Alabama linebacker, Courtney Upshaw, will go to the Chargers or Eagles, most mock drafters believe. Robert Lester, Alabama’s other safety, its free safety, is a possible second round pick of the Eagles. Alabama defensive tackle Josh Chapman is expected to go in the third round, perhaps to the Indianapolis Colts. LSU safety Brandon Taylor could go in the fourth round, with the Cleveland Browns a possible suitor.
What is scary about LSU’s defense is
that its best players are underclassmen. LSU cornerback Tyrann Mathieu,
probably the best player in the country, is a sophomore. The best pass rusher
on LSU’s defensive line of outstanding pass rushers is sophomore Sam
Montgomery, a defensive end. The Bayou Bengals’ defensive tackles are freshman
Anthony Johnson and sophomore Mike Brockers.
Alabama’s supposed advantage in this
game is a better offensive, as if an offense ranked 49th in the
country could be that much better than one ranked 58th. Therefore,
let us look at this mano a mano. Trent Richardson probably is better at running
back than LSU’s sophomore Spencer Ware. But the advantage would seem to stop
there. Alabama’s freshman quarterback A.J. McCarron is more efficient than
LSU’s tandem of passer Jarrett Lee and runner Jordan Jefferson. But Jefferson
and Lee both have big play ability---at any time and point in the game. LSU
coach Les Miles is so unpredictable that even a genius like Saban and his
defensive guru Kirby Smart have trouble guessing when the “MAD HATTER” will
take a shot downfield, pull off a double reverse, fake a punt or field goal, or
anything else that comes into Miles’s mind without a moment’s notice. In fact,
I don’t think Miles knows when he’s going to call one of these trick plays. I
don’t think they are planned in advance. I believe he totally goes on his
instincts of the moment. It’s hard to plan against instincts. On the other
hand, Jordan Jefferson has limited his on field performance with off field
arrests and dumb comments. The dumbest came yesterday when he suggested that if
LSU wins the game, it will be considered the greatest team ever. Nothing like a
little bulletin board material to get the Crimson Tide fired up. Alabama wide
receivers Darius Hanks and Marquiz Maze are more polished football players at
this point in their careers than LSU’s juniors, Rueben Randle and Russell
Shepard. But Randle and Shepard are superior athletes, with more upside, and
more big play ability downrange. LSU has mostly a senior offensive line.
Alabama’s has a combination of veterans and newbies. LSU won the first game
because of super special teams, better punting, better field goal kicking. They
both have excellent return games but Alabama is having a down year on coverage.
A team with an excellent tradition of kickers, Alabama is having an unusual bad
kicking season.
LSU gets points for beating Alabama at
Alabama. And more than the 3 points that is normally awarded by gamblers for
home field advantage. Football observers of many decades will tell you that the
Crimson Tide will seldom get bad calls against it by the officials when playing
at Brian Denny Stadium.
Alabama’s more efficient offense noted,
but David Rabinowe and I believe this LSU squad is a team of destiny. They had
the toughest schedule in the country, and have beaten back every challenge. We
believe this resiliency will be the difference for them in taking the Coaches
Trophy, officially called the AFCA National Championship Trophy, back to Baton
Rouge.
CAN ANYBODY BEAT THE GREEN BAY PACKERS?
By: David Rabinowe and Hansen Alexander
With the exception of a brief flirtation
with the Philadelphia Eagles last summer after they signed a flurry of top free
agents, most fans and professional observers have considered the defending
champion Green Bay Packers as the heavy favorite to repeat as Super Bowl
champions. Their 15-1 regular season record, losing only in an upset to the
resurgent Kansas City Chiefs defense on a sloppy and muddy field, did nothing
to discourage that consideration.
Yet the Packers do not play NCAA College
Football where some teams are vastly better than others. They play against
other professionals, most of them considered the best at their position, at
least in the year they were hired, and make the same kind of money. The
difference in skill level among individuals is small, games are often
determined by turnovers, field conditions, weather, etc. The Baltimore Ravens,
for example, could probably beat them if the Super Bowl were played in high
winds on a miserably cold day in Baltimore Harbor, site of the team’s stadium,
and the Ravens offense actually generated some points from running back Ray
Rice and quarterback Joe Flacco. New England’s Patriots always win home games
in the snow so if the event were played there in the suburb of Foxboro, the
Packers could lose. Even the offensively challenged Denver Broncos could
possibly beat the Packers if the Super Bowl were played in Denver, the Bronco
defense played a perfect game, and Tim Tebow prayed the Broncos to victory in
overtime.
The Super Bowl. however, will be played
at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana, on February 5, and will actually
not involve any basketball teams. Lucas Stadium, as the locals call it, is in
an indoor facility which resembles one of those old fashioned armories or field
houses that used to train soldiers during World War 1. (That’s the war when
Hemingway got shot and inflicted the emotion of the experience into a dozen
novels, most particularly, A Farewell to
Arms. It should be noted that Hemingway was lousy at betting on sports. So
if you’re betting on Alabama tomorrow night just because he is, you may lose
your Christmas sweater.) This indoor terrain favors the passing attack of the
Packers, who used to be known for their running attack in the days of Vince
Lombardi, but the times change, and nowhere faster than professional football
where they change the rules every year. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who replaced
Hall of Famer Bret Favre, is probably headed for Canton, Ohio, as well, and not
just on a family vacation. This regular season Rodgers completed 68.3 percent
of his passes which totaled 4643 yards, and that averaged 309.5 per game. These
gaudy numbers included 45 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. He was sacked 36
times and fumbled 4 times. Rodgers is also mobile and scurried for 257 yards
for a 4.3 average. The consistency of his receivers was frightening. Jordy
Nelson caught 68 passes for 1263 yards, 18.6 yards per catch, and 15
touchdowns. Greg Jennings caught only 1 less pass, 67, for 949 yards, a 14.2
average per catch, and 9 touchdowns. Tight end Jermichael Finley caught 55
passes for 767 yards, a 14.0 average yards per catch, and 9 touchdowns. James
Jones gathered in 38 catches for 635 yards, an impressive 16.7 yards per catch,
and 7 touchdowns. Donald Driver took down 37 passes for 445 yards and a 12.0
average, and 6 touchdowns. Rookie Randall Cobb, who averaged 27.7 yards as a
kick returner, caught 25 passes for 375 yards, a 15.0 average per catch, and a
touchdown. In sum, a defensive coordinator’s nightmare.
In truth, the Packers are so good
because they are balanced. Their two running backs, James Starks and Ryan
Grant, ran for 578 and 559 yards respectively. Is that balance or is that
balance? Starks averaged 4.4 yards per carry, grant 4.2 yards per carry, and
fullback John Kuhn 4.9 yards per carry. Did I say something about balance? The
Packers even have a superior kicking game. Mason Crosby kicked 24 of 28 field
goals. Tim Masthay averaged 45.6 yards per punt. Randall Cobb returned both a
kickoff and a punt for a touchdown. Brandon Saine, a speedy rookie from Ohio
State, averaged 20 yards a kick return to join Cobb’s 27.7 yards per kick
return.
And yes, the Packers play defense, too.
They sacked the opposing quarterbacks 29 times and picked off 31 of their
passes. Desmond Bishop comes into the playoffs with 115 tackles and five sacks.
Morgan Burnett made 106 tackles, sacked one quarterback, and made 3
interceptions. Charlie Peprah made 94 tackles and caught 5 interceptions. The
ageless Charles Woodson showed no ill effects from his injury in last year’s
Super Bowl, contributing 75 tackles, 2 sacks and 7 interceptions. Clay Mathews
made 50 tackles, but more importantly continue his big plays with 6 sacks and 3
interceptions. Second year safety Sam Shields stepped up with 4 interceptions.
In looking at these playoff teams, as we
began our analysis this Sunday morning, before the Giants played the Falcons,
and before the Denver Broncos got a close up account of what the Steelers
actually look like in a playoff game, we concluded that the team who would beat
Green Bay must have an outstanding defense. But more, it must have an outstanding
defense that excels in takeaways. We will use interceptions as the measure of
takeaways because safeties and blocked kicks are unusual. As we saw in last
year’s Super Bowl with the Pittsburgh Steelers, you can have a great defense, a
great offensive line, a great quarterback to put pressure on the Packers
defense, and still lose to Green Bay. When the Steelers beat the New England
Patriots earlier in the season, many of you wrote to predict that the Steelers
could and would beat the Packers in the Super Bowl. Therefore we will
definitely consider the Steelers seriously and we will have the luxury of
putting our analysis to the test by this evening after the Steelers and Tim
Tebow have concluded their match.
Houston’s much improved defense was on
view yesterday and acquainted themselves well in a win over pesky Cincinnati
and its red-headed field general out of Katy, Texas, Andy Dalton, with three
interceptions. Many of you told us before the season that this would be
Houston’s breakout year after falling apart late in the season for years. You
were right and the Texans definitely have the defense to make an intriguing
Super Bowl with the Packers. Also intriguing is their matchup next week against
the Ravens in Baltimore and their own ferocious defense led by the greatest
linebacker of his era, Ray Lewis. The Ravens almost never lose at home. Their
stadium, built on the edges of Baltimore Harbor with its swirling winter winds,
favors a team with a strong defense which can frustrate offensive minded
visitors and make them more interested in getting a hot chocolate at half time
than scoring touchdowns. As you might expect from a playoff contender, the
Ravens defense accounted for 48 sacks and 15 interceptions. On the other hand,
the Ravens have been dreadful against the AFC South all year, getting crushed
by lowly Jacksonville and beaten up by Tennessee before the Titans caught their
stride. And the Texans are not Jacksonville or Tennessee.
One important statistic that usually is
an accurate measure of how good, and more importantly, how much pressure a
defense can wield, is sacks. Not surprisingly, this year’s playoff contenders did
well in that category: Baltimore 48, New York Giants 48, Cincinnati 45, Houston
44, San Francisco 42, Denver 41, Detroit 41, New England 40, Pittsburgh 35, New
Orleans 33, Atlanta 30. Giving hope that one of these teams can beat the
Packers, GREEN BAY HAD ONLY 29 INTERCEPTIONS.
Yet using our yard stick of
interceptions as game changers, the regular season told a different story about
which team can compete with the Packers in takeaways. Here are the interception
numbers of all playoff contenders: Denver 9, New Orleans 9, Cincinnati 10,
Steelers 11, Ravens 15, Houston Texans 17, Atlanta Falcons 19, New York Giants
20, Detroit Lions 21, New England Patriots 23, San Francisco 49ers 23. By this
measure, the teams with the best chances of beating the Packers are the
Patriots and 49ers. Not a surprise really.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE PACKERS WON THE
REGULAR SEASON INTERCEPTION CONTEST BY A WIDE MARGIN, ALMOST 10 MORE THAN ANY
OTHER TEAM---WITH 31.
However, let’s put those two highly
important defensive statistics, sacks and interceptions, together. The highest
totals come from the Houston Texans 61, Baltimore Ravens 63, New England
Patriots 63, San Francisco 49ers 65, and the highest total, New York Giants 68.
In both calculations the 49ers in the NFC and the Patriots of the AFC are right
up there. THE GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THREE TEAMS, INCLUDING THE GIANTS, IS THAT
GREEN BAY’S DEFENSIVE TOTAL OF SACKS AND INTERCEPTIONS WAS ONLY 60. BY THAT
MEASURE, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, NEW ENGLAND, SAN FRANCISCO, AND THE GIANTS COULD
ALL BEAT THE PACKERS.
Of course, all of these offenses are not
equal. New England clearly has the most explosive operation throwing the ball.
And while their overall defensive statistics are not great, they obviously won
their division once again because of their improved pass rush and takeaways. My
wife said in August that “this is the Patriots year” and it is hard to see the
Patriots not playing in the Super Bowl.
If the Packers are to miss the Super
Bowl, they will therefore most likely lose during the conference playoffs to
the San Francisco 49ers or the New York Giants. You probably noticed that the
New York Giants had the highest defensive total there with 68.
There is a similarity for the Giants
this year to their last Super Bowl season in 2007. That year they lost by 3
points late in the season to their eventual Super Bowl adversary, the New
England Patriots. Then they took out the Packers on the road in Green Bay for
the NFC title. Green Bay has the home field advantage throughout this year’s
playoffs. This year late in the season they lost to the Packers 38-35. That’s
by 3 points.
As it turns out, we will not have long
to wait to test this theory. The Giants play the Packers next week.
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